Envisioning a world of $200-a-barrel oil

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Envisioning a world of $200-a-barrel oil
As forecasters take that possibility more seriously, they describe fundamental shifts in the way we work, where we live and how we spend our free time.


The more expensive oil gets, the more Katherine Carver's life shrinks. She's given up RV trips. She stays home most weekends. She's scrapped her twice-a-month volunteer stint at a Malibu wildlife refuge -- the trek from her home in Palmdale just got too expensive.How much higher would fuel prices have to go before she quit her job? Already, the 170-mile round-trip commute to her job with Los Angeles County Child Support Services in Commerce is costing her close to $1,000 a month -- a fifth of her salary. It's got the 55-year-old thinking about retirement.




It's definitely pushing me to that point," Carver said.The point could be closer than anyone thinks.Three months ago, when oil was around $108 a barrel, a few Wall Street analysts began predicting that it could rise to $200. Many observers scoffed at the forecasts as sensational, or motivated by a desire among energy companies and investors to drive prices higher.But with oil closing above $140 a barrel Friday, more experts are taking those predictions seriously -- and shuddering at the inflation-fueled chaos that $200-a-barrel crude could bring. They foresee fundamental shifts in the way we work, where we live and how we spend our free time."You'd have massive changes going on throughout the economy," said Robert Wescott, president of Keybridge Research, a Washington economic analysis firm. "Some activities are just plain going to be shut down."Besides the obvious effect $7-a-gallon gasoline would have on commuters, automakers, airlines, truckers and shipping firms, $200 oil would drive up the price of a broad spectrum of products: Insecticides and hand lotions, cosmetics and food preservatives, shaving cream and rubber cement, plastic bottles and crayons -- all have ingredients derived from oil.The pain would probably be particularly intense in Southern California, which is known for its long commutes and high cost of living."Throughout our history, we have grown on the assumption that energy costs would be low," said Michael Woo, a former Los Angeles city councilman and a current member of the city Planning Commission. "Now that those assumptions are shifting, it changes assumptions about housing, cars and how cities grow."Push prices up fast enough, he said, and "it would be the urban-planning equivalent of an earthquake."ConsumersWith every penny hike in the price of gas costing American consumers about $1 billion a year, sharply higher pump prices would lead to "significant bankruptcies and store closings," said Scott Hoyt, director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com.Consumer spending has held up surprisingly well in the face of skyrocketing pump prices -- bolstered in part, perhaps, by federal tax rebates. But the same day the government reported a 0.8% rise in May consumer spending, a research firm said consumer confidence had plunged to its lowest level since 1980 -- hinting at the catastrophic effect another big gas price surge could have on retailers and customers."The purchasing power of the American people would be kicked in the teeth so darned hard by $200-a-barrel oil that they won't have the ability to buy much of anything," said S. David Freeman, president of the L.A. Board of Harbor Commissioners and author of the 2007 book "Winning Our Energy Independence."BIGresearch of Worthington, Ohio, said more than half of Californians in a recent survey said they were driving less because of high gas prices. Almost 42% said they had reduced vacation travel and 40% said they were dining out less.If any retailers would benefit, it would be those on the Internet. In a recent survey by Harris Interactive, one-third of adults said high gas prices had made them more likely to shop online to avoid driving.Restaurant operators such as Brinker International, which owns the Chili's and Romano's Macaroni Grill chains, are suffering and are likely to struggle even more as consumers look for ways to reduce spending. Fast-food chains wouldn't be immune, experts say, although they might fare better as families downscale their dining choices.Vehicle sales, too, would probably continue to tank. Sales of new cars, sport utility vehicles and light trucks fell more than 18% in California in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Although some consumers have been shopping for smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, many dealers are demanding premiums for gas-sipping hybrids, wiping out much of the financial advantage of buying one.Nationwide, $200 oil and $7 gasoline would force Americans to take 10 million vehicles off the roads over the next four years, Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, wrote in a recent report.



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ΟΠΕΚ: Στα 170 δολάρια η τιμή του πετρελαίου πριν από το τέλος του έτους



Εκτίναξη της τιμής του πετρελαίου στα 170 δολάρια το βαρέλι πριν από το τέλος του 2008 προβλέπει ο πρόεδρος του ΟΠΕΚ Χακίμπ Κελίλ, επικαλούμενος την εξασθένηση του δολαρίου και τις γεωπολιτικές ανησυχίες.
"Oι τιμές του πετρελαίου αναμένεται να φθάσουν τα 170 δολάρια, καθώς η ζήτηση για καύσιμα στις ΗΠΑ αυξάνεται κατά τη διάρκεια του καλοκαιριού και το δολάριο συνεχίζει να υποχωρεί έναντι του ευρώ", δήλωσε σε τηλεφωνική συνέντευξη ο πρόεδρος του ΟΠΕΚ.
Σύμφωνα με τον κ. Κελίλ, ο οποίος παράλληλα ασκεί καθήκοντα υπουργού Πετρελαίου της Αλγερίας, το ράλι των πετρελαϊκών τιμών οφείλεται και στην άσκηση πολιτικής πίεσης προς το Ιράν, ενώ δεν σχετίζεται με την προσφορά, την οποία χαρακτήρισε επαρκή και ικανή να ανταποκριθεί στην παγκόσμια ζήτηση.
Tην περασμένη εβδομάδα, η Λιβύη, ο τρίτος μεγαλύτερος παραγωγός πετρελαίου της Αφρικής, ανακοίνωσε διά στόματος του υπουργού Πετρελαίου ότι ίσως να μειώσει την παραγωγή της λόγω υπερπροσφοράς αργού στην αγορά.
"Οι αποφάσεις της Fed και της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας συνέβαλαν στην υποτίμηση του δολαρίου, η οποία με τη σειρά της έσπρωξε προς τα πάνω τις τιμές του πετρελαίου", ανέφερε ο πρόεδρος του ΟΠΕΚ.
Την Παρασκευή η τιμή του αργού αναρριχήθηκε στα 142,99 δολάρια το βαρέλι καταγράφοντας νέο ιστορικό ρεκόρ. Οι τιμές του αργού έχουν διπλασιαστεί σε σύγκριση με την περυσινή χρονιά, ενώ στο τρέχον τρίμηνο καταγράφουν ήδη άνοδο κατά 38% και οδεύουν προς τη μεγαλύτερη άνοδο - σε τριμηνιαία βάση - από το πρώτο τρίμηνο του 1999.
Αναλυτές εκτιμούν ότι η τιμή του "μαύρου χρυσού" θα ενισχυθεί περαιτέρω σε περίπτωση που η ΕΚΤ αυξήσει τα επιτόκια στις 3 Ιουλίου, εξέλιξη η οποία αναμένεται να οδηγήσει σε άνοδο του ευρώ έναντι του αμερικανικού νομίσματος.
Αναταράξεις στα χρηματιστήρια
Η ξέφρενη κούρσα των τιμών του "μαύρου χρυσού", οι φόβοι περί επιτάχυνσης του πληθωρισμού και τα απογοητευτικά στοιχεία για την αμερικανική οικονομία πυροδότησαν μαζικές ρευστοποιήσεις την περασμένη εβδομάδα στις αγορές μετοχών.
Στο πρώτο εξάμηνο του τρέχοντος έτους, ο παγκόσμιος δείκτης ΜSCI καταγράφει συνολικές απώλειες 11,7%. Πρόκειται για τη χειρότερη επίδοσή του από το πρώτο εξάμηνο του 1982.
Στις ΗΠΑ, ο δείκτης S&P 500 υποχώρησε την περασμένη εβδομάδα κατά 3% υποχωρώντας κάτω από τις 1.300 μονάδες, ενώ ο πανευρωπαϊκός δείκτης FTSEurofirst 300 από τις αρχές του έτους καταγράφει απώλειες 21%. Πρόκειται για το χειρότερο εξάμηνο από το 1986.
Στην Ιαπωνία, ο δείκτης Nikkei [.N225] 225 υποχώρησε στα χαμηλότερα επίπεδα των τελευταίων δύο ετών σημειώνοντας πτώση πάνω από 2%.
Πηγές: Bloomberg, Financial Times

Φατε αλλον ενα π**στ*,γιατι δεν λεει 1800$/το βαρέλι

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-06-26-oil-price-could-hit-170-a-barrel-says-opec-head

Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, president of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), forecast on Thursday that oil prices could rise to $150 to $170 a barrel during the northern hemisphere summer. "I predict probably prices of $150 to $170 this summer. It [the market] will probably fall a bit towards the end of the year," he said in an interview with the France 24 television channel.Khelil said he did not expect prices to hit $200 a barrel, barring a major market crisis such as a halt in production in Iran.In that case, he added, prices could possibly surge to "$200, $300, $400".In the short term, he said, "everything depends on the European Central Bank (ECB) and a decision it could take to raise eurozone interest rates"."At that time, I think the price of oil will increase."ECB policymakers are to meet on July 3 when many analysts predict they will decide to raise their benchmark rate by a quarter of a point to 4,25% in the face of rising inflationary pressure.A strong euro, and a weaker dollar, would drive up demand for oil, which is marketed in the US unit and becomes cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.Khelil also cited "threats against Iran", where US and European officials suspect that authorities may be trying to develop nuclear power for military purposes.

Το κόλπο για να ανεβουμε απο τα 140$ το βαρέλι

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/oil_prices.html

APOil jumps above $140 on OPEC, Libya commentsThursday June 26, 2:55 pm ET By John Wilen, AP Business Writer Oil prices above $140 as OPEC president says prices could pass $150; Libya may cut output
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures shot above $140 Thursday after OPEC's president said oil prices could rise well above $150 a barrel this year and Libya said it may cut oil production.Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $140.39 in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange before retreating slightly to trade up $5.53 at $140.08. Final prices weren't available, but crude appeared headed to a record settlement.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer before declining later in the year. Khelil said he doesn't think prices will reach $200 a barrel.
Khelil joins a long list of forecasters who have made bold oil price predictions this year. Each new forecast -- such as Goldman Sachs' recent prediction that prices could rise as high as $200 -- causes a jump in prices as speculative buyers are drawn into the market.
Meanwhile, the head of Libya's national oil company said the country may cut crude production because the oil market is well supplied, according to news reports.
"Shokri Ghanem, the nation's top oil official, declined to say when a decision would be made on whether to lower production, or give any indication of the size of the cut under consideration," said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note.
Oil's move above $140 a barrel was the first for what's known as a front-month crude contract, or the contract with the earliest expiration date. But it was not the August contract's first foray above $140 -- August crude futures rose as high as $140.42 a barrel while July futures were still traded as the front-month crude contract. Many other later contracts have also traded above $140.
The previous trading record for a front-month contract was $139.89, set by the July contract on June 16.
Oil's record surge came late in the day on no new news, analysts said, suggesting late-session position squaring by investors.
"A lot of volume comes in the last 45 minutes (of trading)," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.
Oil futures were also rising as investors reassessed comments the Federal Reserve made Wednesday when it held a key interest rate unchanged. Many investors who had expected the Fed to raise interest rates in August now think a rate hike is unlikely until after the November election or next year, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.
"Right now, the market's viewing the Fed as powerless," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
Interest rates affect the dollar; many analysts believe the Fed's rate cutting campaign, which began last September, had much to do with weakening the dollar against the euro and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Investors buy commodities such as oil when the greenback is falling. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies.
The dollar slid against the euro after the Fed's comments Wednesday, and was down again on Thursday.
Retail gas prices, meanwhile, were unchanged overnight at a national average of $4.067, according to a survey of stations by AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. Gas prices have retreated slightly from a record of $4.08 set June 16, but are unlikely to fall much more as long as crude oil remains in its recent range between roughly $131 and $140.
If oil extends its gains above $140, gas prices could rise to $4.25 in short order, Cordier said.
In other Nymex trading Thursday, July gasoline futures rose 10.84 cents to $3.5025 a gallon and July heating oil futures rose 14.08 cents to $3.89 a gallon. The expiring July natural gas futures rose 37.7 cents to $13.13 per 1,000 cubic feet. Trading in expiring contracts is often volatile.
In London, August Brent crude futures rose $5.74 to $140.05 on the ICE Futures Exch

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Τη συμπαράστασή του στο Δήμαρχο Τήλου εξέφρασε ο Γ. Παπανδρέου


Στην τέλεση των πρώτων γάμων ομοφυλοφίλων, το πρωί στην Τήλο, αναφέρθηκε ο εκπρόσωπος Τύπου του ΠΑΣΟΚ Γιώργος Παπακωνσταντίνου.
Όπως είπε, η θέση του κόμματος και το Πρόγραμμά του είναι σαφή. «Εμείς θεωρούμε ότι υπάρχουν ζητήματα ατομικών δικαιωμάτων και σεβασμού της διαφορετικότητας, τα οποία σε κάθε σύγχρονη ευρωπαϊκή χώρα είναι κάτι που όλα τα προοδευτικά πολιτικά κόμματα υπερασπίζονται. Εμείς λοιπόν στο Πρόγραμμά μας αναφερόμαστε στο σύμφωνο συμβίωσης, και λέμε ότι το σύμφωνο συμβίωσης πρέπει να επεκταθεί και στα ομόφυλα ζευγάρια, κάτι το οποίο η κυβέρνηση σήμερα αρνείται».
Ο κ. Παπακωνσταντίνου γνωστοποίησε ακόμη πως ο πρόεδρος του ΠΑΣΟΚ επικοινώνησε με τον Δήμαρχο της Τήλου για να του εκφράσει τη συμπαράστασή του «για την προληπτική επέμβαση του κ. Σανιδά για ένα ζήτημα δικαιωμάτων, το οποίο τίθεται με την τέλεση του πολιτικού γάμου». Γράφει ο ΠΛΑΤΩΝΑΣ ΤΣΟΥΛΟΣ-->


Παντως η ακρίβεια έγινε δευτερο θέμα, αχ υενεδ ποιος θα το έλεγε πως θα σε πεθυμάγαμε